The swift change brought by the Arab Spring has surprised most of us. Depending on your political allegiance, the dictators were either stable (a common, convenient and … hypocritical view of a few Western leaders only too happy to ‘look the other way’) or stale (the views of around 300m people suffering from an iron fist for decades). Effective new governments have yet to be formed in Tunisia and Egypt whilst Libya is close to celebrating a new dawn. Yemen may be next. However, the Middle East is far from monolithic. Let us delve deeper.

1. Bush’s strategy was to bomb its way to ‘democracy’, if you forgive the oxymoron, though one wonders why he was singularly interested only in ‘democracy’ in Iraq and not in the other oil-rich Arab states or even in North Africa. The long-suffering populations have shown that a formidable mass movement from within can be much more successful - and cost 5,000 lives instead of 500,000.

2. The corollary of the above is that, if you want to get rid of your dictator and his cronies, courtesans and sycophants, do not wait for so-called European or American enlightenment boasting about ‘freedom’ or ‘democracy’ to help you. You have to do your dirty job yourselves. No one is going to help you - but they will run to you with a new-found virginity once you are in power.

3. The so-called ‘domino effect’ theory spun by the neo-cons (Rumsfeld, Rove, Cheyney) was that once a country experiences democracy, others would be encouraged to copy it. Of course, they were never interested in true democracy. The ‘theory’ was pure spin to make the war more palatable to taxpayers. Well, they got more than they bargained for. The ‘domino effect’ is indeed working beautifully, though not on their terms: it is eliminating one by one the very dictators they were supporting.

4. Even worst for the West, which always maintained that revolutions in the Middle East were Islamic revolutions intent only on destroying their ‘civilisation’ and way of life, the revolutions of 2011 have been about everything except Islamic extremism. If anything, the revolutions are making Al Qaeda et al weaker. Popular movements, such as the Islamic Brotherhood, have even shunned leadership roles during the revolution.

5. Western powers are now scrambling to save face to become, overnight, the new friends of the oppositions now in power, when they supported the dictators in the first place. Gaddafi was the new friend of Tony Blair. Many French politicians shamefully shunned their cherished Liberté-Egalité-Fraternité to holiday in Tunisia and Egypt, cosily using the private jets of the dictators.

6. It is difficult for the rulers to attack masses, ie. a movement without a leader or even an organisation behind it. Mubarak could imprison the few leaders of a movement and torture them. It was more difficult with 2m youths at Tahrir Square. A spontaneous nebula of ‘enough is enough’, channelled through facebook and twitter, is the slickest of movements. This flies in the face of many theories about the importance of leadership! After the concept of a ‘jobless recovery’ in economics, we now have ‘leaderless revolutions’.

7. However, citizens of a country can be bribed en masse. This is only possible if the population is relatively small and the countries very rich. In the Gulf countries, rulers spend billions on welfare to keep their populations quiet and happy, busy buying iPhones and iPads.

8. Here is the recipe if you happen to rule a less fortunate country. Make life just bearable enough, ‘depriving’ people of the ras-le-bol motivation to rally, even for the best of causes. Carefully keep the population just below boiling point. Why just below and not well below? In this dismal economics equation, it will cost those in power much more to allow their people more happiness. This is exactly the ‘economic surplus’ that those in power can pocket. Also, prevent any movement from reaching the ‘critical mass’ (one of the prerequisites for change). Who knows, such a country might even exist…

9. However, all hope is not lost for a better future. Even if a country is growing fast and millions of people are being lifted out of poverty, a powerful force can bring an incompetent government and corrupt politicians to their knees. Enter Anna Hazare in India.

10. Low or no cost communication, delivered by the second is the role of technology at its best – the great enabler. It does not define any ideology or strategy but helps us to implement what is best for human beings. He did not move one inch in his demands and finally won. Rahul Gandhi, touted as the next Prime Minister of India, made a speech in Parliament which was a paragon of … stupidity. As a youngster, he should have embraced the new movement instead of siding with the establishment of corrupt dinosaurs.

11. However, the future of those countries which have binned their dictators is still fraught with danger. There are, very roughly, two types of societies. When the corrupt party in power was merely a family clan with a few thousands cronies (Ben Ali and Gaddafi), you get rid of the cancer by getting rid of the family. The situation is much more challenging for Egypt. The military there consisted of an elite few thousands but also of a privileged and corrupt upper middle class. The military is still running industries and even cement companies, for example. When the disease is so pervasive, the risk of a cure for change is very high indeed.

12. The reasons for those revolutions are not so-called ‘Islamism’. They are genuine demands for a better future. Whilst the West has been caught red-handed, it still has a … good hand. It can offer its substantial experience in critical areas such as governance, legal and political frameworks, economics and investment. Having dealt with government in the UK as a resident for ten years, I can readily testify that many government values, attitudes and processes in the UK are far more ethical, and hence ironically more Islamic, than those found in Arab countries!

Despite the celebrations, many challenges remain but I, for one, would not be so pessimistic as to say that the most difficult job is yet to be done. No, let us give the Arab youths their overdue praise and say that they have overcome their fear and already achieved the most difficult by toppling 80-year old dinosaurs, the puppet dictators (when I visited Egypt last year, I was reminded that even private verbal jokes about Mubarak were not allowed). What remains is a major challenge but it is called ‘nation-building’. It may take 20 years but they have started. ‘There is nothing to fear but fear itself’ (Franklin D. Roosevelt).

fdiouman@hotmail.com