Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…(Churchill, 1947)

The above quote does not serve any useful purpose except to remind readers that democracy, wherever it has been practiced, has always been a blood sport and some take to it better than others. The events of the last few weeks or should I say the last few decades have done nothing but reinforce the view that this sport is alive and well and showing convincing evidence of its “worstness”. As enjoyable as the spectacle is for those of us watching from far, the outcome of the latest round of combat will have serious consequences. Conventional wisdom is that these consequences may affect the population but they rarely touch the political class. The survival rate of the round robin players has been pretty high. Till now.

What is changing in front of our eyes is a serious erosion of the few values that have provided at least a veneer of respectability among our leaders. Even when alliances were made and broken, there have been “individual bridges” that have kept lines of communications open and back room dealings to make sure that the many skeletons are never allowed to be seen by the public. For all the continuous references to corruption at high levels, favoritism, and other dubious practices, regimes come and regimes go but no one has fingered anyone of any consequence. As in commerce, “pas gate travaille” is a dictum that has had some usefulness in our national life.

Aside from probably preventing the decapitation of the entire political structure in Mauritius, the unwritten rules have allowed the parties some maneuvering room in creating workable alliances from time to time and this has been beneficial to the country. Considering the deep feelings of insecurity that afflicts many on the basis of race, culture, religion, caste and political affiliation, it is remarkable that we are where we are. The question we have to ask is whether we are at the tipping point where cannibalism has afflicted our leaders to such a degree that they are ready to consume their own?

The question needs to be raised because, unlike other “political crises”, the root this time is different and the resolution will ultimately be different. Practically every alliance has been torn asunder by personal excesses of protagonists whose ambition was power and whose idea of collaboration was to wield as much of it as they could. This time, however, there is such venom in the air that it is quite clear that power is secondary to personal animus.

As the drama unfolds, it is worth mentioning to everyone that they are unleashing forces which they will not be able to control. Kahneman, the psychologist who won a Nobel prize in Economics through his work on decision-making, spends a fair amount of time discussing the hubris of people in power, especially those who tend to be overly optimistic about their own plans and actions. He specifically mentions the advice of that great warrior-philosopher, Donald Rumsfeld, about the “unknown unknowns”. It is unlikely that anyone will heed either advice but it is instructive to ask how can anyone really survive this Armageddon?

The President had a good run as Prime Minister. Despite some historical gaffes, he is a well-respected elder statesman who maintained the dignity of his office at probably the most difficult time in what was a well-organized public humiliation. He enhanced his stature by letting children be children. Now, in a matter of days, he has become one of them. No matter how he leaves office, the fact that he engaged in the kind of critical discourse of the last few days has created a precedent we don’t need. It is hardly likely that others will not be persuaded in the future that such behavior is incompatible with the presidency. This is a mistake of monumental proportion and one which taints his tenure forever.

The Prime Minister has been re-elected twice in a row, no mean feat in these difficult times. He has enjoyed a monopoly on political initiatives and set the agenda for the country for a good chunk of the last decade. Whatever the cause of the current crisis, managing it with wisdom is now a defining issue for his own legacy. After helping to restore a moribund party back to power, this fight will place in jeopardy everything the party stands for and what it has tried to accomplish.

The Leader of the Opposition may feel emboldened by the expanding wedge between the President and the Prime Minister but under any scenario, he has to peel some supporters from the governing alliance in order to precipitate elections. Crossing the floor, changing political parties have been a part of Mauritian folklore for a long time but this is different: In the past, people have been ejected from the governing class but the government survived. This will be the first time, if it so happens, that a government falls because of attempts to destabilize it from the opposition. This is a precedent that will have serious repercussions at many different levels, not the least of which is that the victors will perpetually have to be checking their own backs. Not to mention how part of the electorate will react to a change in government under these circumstances.

The Leader of the MSM may feel aggrieved by what has happened but he too faces serious challenges in case the President sides with the opposition. First, his credibility is already shattered by the fact that the MMM has specifically repudiated him as a leader to negotiate with, on par with its own leader. To now have, for posterity, the reputation of being rescued by one’s dad is something that cannot be easy to digest. How this will affect the MSM is clearly going to be interesting.

The four meaningful characters are betting their future on a game which they believe they control but which may well be beyond their ability to understand. All the other participants are going to be forever tarnished for allowing it to play out. If ever there was a time for prudence and assertive leadership, this is it. Who will step forward?